Analisis Tren dan Peramalan Kunjungan Wisatawan di Bali Tahun 2026 Menggunakan Metode Quantile Autoregression (QAR)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51713/jotis.2026.61124Keywords:
Quantile Autoregression, Peramalan Pariwisata, BaliAbstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tren serta meramalkan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan di Bali tahun 2026 menggunakan metode Quantile Autoregression (QAR). Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan kunjungan wisatawan domestik dan internasional periode Januari 2004 hingga Desember 2025 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Analisis dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan QAR pada kuantil median (τ = 0,5) untuk menangkap dinamika pergerakan jumlah wisatawan berdasarkan karakteristik data historis. Evaluasi model dilakukan melalui pendekatan rolling forecasting origin dengan skema one-step-ahead forecasting untuk menguji kemampuan prediksi di luar sampel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kunjungan wisatawan di Bali mengalami tren meningkat sebelum pandemi COVID-19, penurunan signifikan pada masa pandemi, serta pemulihan bertahap pada periode pascapandemi. Hasil evaluasi model menunjukkan bahwa metode QAR memiliki kinerja peramalan yang cukup memadai dengan nilai Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE) sebesar 11,72% untuk wisatawan domestik dan 7,60% untuk wisatawan internasional. Berdasarkan hasil peramalan, jumlah kunjungan wisatawan pada tahun 2026 diperkirakan mencapai sekitar 10,14 juta kunjungan untuk wisatawan domestik dan 7,01 juta kunjungan untuk wisatawan internasional, dengan pola musiman yang masih dominan terutama pada periode pertengahan dan akhir tahun. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa metode QAR pada kuantil median mampu menangkap pola utama pergerakan wisatawan secara cukup akurat, sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai dasar dalam perencanaan dan pengambilan kebijakan pengelolaan sektor pariwisata di Bali.
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